Canada is set to take a significant turn in its immigration policy as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government prepares to announce a reduction in immigration levels after years of consecutive increases.

The decision is expected to be revealed on Thursday, with new permanent resident intake targets scaled back by 90,000 individuals in 2025, dropping to 395,000 from this year’s 485,000.

This is exactly in line with what we (INC News) predicted in our analysis published on July 9, 2024: “Will Canada reduce immigration targets in November 2024?”

This marks a sharp reversal from the government’s earlier projection of reaching 500,000 new immigrants annually by 2025.

The revised immigration targets will gradually decrease further to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, signalling a more measured and restrained immigration approach for the coming years.

Breaking Down the New Canada Immigration Levels Plan That Sources Are Reporting

The new immigration levels are part of a broader economic and social recalibration by the Trudeau administration.

While Immigration Minister Marc Miller is expected to provide a detailed breakdown of immigration programs on November 1, 2024, early reports from sources suggest that the federal economic class will bear the brunt of these reductions.

1. • Economic-class immigration intake will drop by approximately 60%, reducing the number of accepted applicants to just over 41,000 in 2025.
   • The cut is expected to moderately recover by 2026 and 2027 but will remain far below the previous targets set in earlier immigration plans.
   • Economic immigration include the Agri-Food Pilot Program, Canadian Experience Class (CEC), Caregiver programs, Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot Program (RNIP), Federal Skilled Trades (FST), Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) program, Start-Up Visa program, Self-Employed program. Economic Class Cuts:

2. Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs):
   • The intake through PNPs will be halved to 55,000 in 2025 and maintained at that level until 2027, significantly limiting the opportunities available for provincial immigration streams.
   • The new plan also includes a reduction of 20,000 family reunification visas next year, a policy shift that may draw backlash from advocates for family immigration.
   • Currently, family reunification is set at 118,000; with a reduction of 20,000, it is expected to drop to 98,000. Family Reunification Programs:
     
3. Refugee and Protected Persons Programs:
   • The refugee program levels will also face similar reductions, though these numbers remain subject to change based on fluctuating asylum claims and refugee applications in any given year.
4. Temporary resident levels:
   • For the first time, the government will set official targets for temporary residents, with plans to reduce temporary resident applications by nearly 30,000 in 2025, bringing the total to just over 300,000.
   • This aligns with Immigration Minister Marc Miller’s earlier comments about reducing temporary residents’ share of the population from 6.5% to 5.2% over the next three years.

Immigration Category	2025 Target	2026 Target	2027 Target
Total Permanent Residents	395,000	380,000	365,000

Why the Sudden Shift?

The Trudeau administration’s decision to cut immigration targets reflects both public sentiment and practical economic realities.

The announcement follows a tense Liberal caucus meeting, where frustrated MPs expressed concerns over the unpopularity of Trudeau’s policies.

Immigration has become a hot-button political issue in Canada, and with a federal election approaching in October 2025, the government appears to be re-calibrating its stance in response to growing public pressure.

The reduction of immigration levels signals a significant shift in the Liberal government’s policy, moving away from the more ambitious targets set in previous years.

This policy U-turn is notable given the Liberals’ long-standing support for high immigration levels as a tool to address Canada’s aging population and labour shortages.

However, with growing public discontent, immigration policy has become a decisive election issue.

Trudeau’s government faces mounting criticism from both opposition parties and voters who are concerned about the rapid pace of population growth.

The reduction in immigration numbers reflects a political strategy to regain voter trust ahead of the federal election.

A Measured Approach or a Departure from Globalist Ideals?

Canada’s decision to reduce immigration intake represents a significant shift in its policy landscape, balancing domestic economic challenges with public sentiment.

The Trudeau government is betting that a more measured immigration strategy will ease the housing crisis, reduce strain on public services, and help address rising unemployment.

However, the long-term impact on Canada’s economy and demographic future remains uncertain.

As Canada heads toward the 2025 federal election, immigration will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping the political discourse and determining voter behaviour.

Whether the move will be seen as a pragmatic response to public concerns or a step away from Canada’s multicultural ideals will depend on how effectively the government manages the economic and social consequences of these policy changes.

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