New 2025 Immigration Targets, Canada’s new immigration targets for 2025-2027, reducing the overall planned permanent resident admissions, are shaking things up, and Express Entry draws are in the spotlight.

With the government reducing overall immigration targets from the ambitious 500,000 to 395,000, many are wondering:

How will these changes impact Express Entry draws and provincial nominee programs (PNPs)?

This change reflects a new immigration strategy to address Canadian labour market demands and economic priorities.

In this article, we’ll analyze how these new targets will influence Express Entry draws, category-based invitations, and PNP streams.

Additionally, we’ll explore insights by some of the provinces and the evolving dynamics of federal immigration policy.

Overview of New 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan

Year	Target	Low Range	High Range
2025	395,000	367,000	436,000
2026	380,000	352,000	416,000
2027	365,000	338,000	401,000

The plan indicates a progressive reduction in immigration targets over the next three years.

However, it allows flexibility within the set ranges, providing leeway to adjust for evolving economic and demographic needs.

Let’s dive deeper into Express Entry’s role in this evolving framework.

Impact on Express Entry Draws: New Federal Economic Priorities

Express Entry will see a transformation under the new “Federal Economic Priorities” and “In-Canada Focus” category split out from the previous overall “Federal High Skilled.”

The good news is that in reality, the total number of new permanent residents under these 2 new categories has increased to 124,680 as compared to the previously set combined target of 110,770.

This is an increase of 12.55% as compared to an overall reduction of nearly 21% in annual permanent residency targets.

The category-based approach will emphasize priority fields such as 35 healthcare occupations, 10 trade occupations, and French-speaking applicants.

The 2025 target allocates 41,700 new permanent resident admissions to this category, underscoring a strategic focus on filling critical labour gaps.

Furthermore, another 82,980 new permanent resident admissions have been allocated under the “In-Canada Focus.”

This “In-Canada Focus” means new permanent resident admissions primarily from the Canadian Experience Class and other regional immigration pathways.

These may also come from federally skilled workers and federally skilled trades.

Regional immigration pathways might include the rural immigration programs that are yet to be announced.

What should applicants do?

This sends a strong message and good news to the temporary residents in Canada looking for permanent residency options.

IRCC public consultations for setting Express Entry draw categories for 2025 also emphasized asking questions to focus on selecting temporary residents already in Canada (former international students and temporary foreign workers).

Similarly, consultations were also surveyed on increasing francophone immigration outside Quebec.

The message is clear: there will be even more frequent Canadian Experience Class draws or we may see a new version of draws under category-based draws.

For example, healthcare targeted the Express Entry draw (version 2) only for CEC candidates.

Applicants should start focusing on 35 healthcare occupations, 10 trade occupations, and French-speaking applicants as soon as possible to ace their chances of receiving permanent residency.

Other priority categories, such as STEM, transport, and agriculture or agri-food, are expected to remain in effect under the “In-Canada Focus.”

Please note the immigration levels plan or targets are not equal to the number of invitations. The number of invitations is usually higher than the set targets.

With Express Entry CRS scores often surpassing 500 points, candidates are advised to explore options like learning French or gaining work experience in priority sectors to increase their chances.

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Cuts: A Setback for Aspirants

One of the most notable changes in the 2025-2027 plan is the drastic reduction in PNP allocations.

Previously targeted at 120,000 admissions, the new plan allocates 55,000 admissions for 2025—less than half of the original goal.

It is important to understand that most of the provincial nominee programs by major Canadian provinces operate in non-Express Entry and Express Entry categories.

For non-Express Entry streams/programs, the PNP quota has decreased by more than 50%, but not for PNP Express Entry streams/programs.

What Does This Mean for PNP Applicants?

• Fewer Invitations: Provincial immigration programs that were once the go-to option for candidates with lower Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores may now have fewer opportunities.
• Programs Like Ontario’s Masters Stream Impacted: Students and workers targeting Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta through non-Express Entry PNP streams may face delays or rejections due to reduced quotas.
• Tensions Between Federal and Provincial Governments: The reduction is seen as a federal move to exert control over immigration, potentially penalizing provinces that resisted accepting more refugee claimants.

The Premier of Alberta, along with the provincial immigration minister, has already openly expressed their concerns regarding the reduction in PNP targets.

Similarly, Toronto mayor Olivia Chow also echoed on the note in regards to the drop in immigration targets under the PNP.

What should applicants do?

The cut to PNP quotas is a major setback for applicants counting on these programs.

The federal government’s decision to reduce PNP targets is seen as a strategic move to reduce provincial autonomy in immigration selection.

The federal government seems to make it clear that provinces take the responsibility of increased immigration under PNP.

Aim for PNP streams or programs that operate directly with the Express Entry system by optimizing their profile according to eligibility criteria for previous similar streams/programs.

CRS Score Trends and Future Predictions

As of October 2024, the CRS distribution in the pool shows a significant number of candidates scoring above 500 points.

However, with the shift towards category-based draws, the following trends are expected:

• More frequent CEC draws: Recently, Canada has been conducting CEC draws regularly, but with the distribution of a large chunk in the annual target for “In-Canada Focus,” the frequency of CEC draws is expected to be even more.
• CRS scores of 490+ could be cleared within the first quarter of 2025, provided IRCC maintains consistency in its CEC-only draw size of more than 3,000-4,000.
• Lower CRS Scores for Trades and Healthcare Draws: Candidates in these fields may receive invitations with scores around 430-450 points.
• Unfavourable for Other Candidates: applicants outside the priority categories might struggle to receive invitations unless they achieve exceptionally high CRS scores or provincial nominations under the Express Entry categories.

Conclusion

The reduction in Canada’s immigration targets reflects a shift in strategy aimed at balancing economic needs with policy priorities.

While the cuts to PNP programs may disappoint some applicants, the emphasis on in-Canada applicants and category-based draws offers new opportunities for others.

Express Entry remains a viable pathway, but success will require careful planning and strategic moves—such as learning French or switching to a priority occupation.

For many, the key takeaway is clear: adapt quickly and apply early to stay ahead in this evolving immigration landscape.

Stay informed, act fast, and explore all available pathways to make the most of your immigration journey in 2025 and beyond.